Doubt it. Chinese lepidolite producers still in operation are probably vertically integrated and hence are being subsidized & African producers are willing to sell their concentrates at low prices because their first products are coming from the best ores they have.
Vic Petrovich (could be a HC member owning LTR)
As far as I am aware Greenbushes and Pilbara are increasing supply . That is inconsistent with a supply based increase in lithium prices . The Australian lithium companies don’t appear to be talking or cooperating with each other .
to which Juan replied
That's correct. They equivocally believe they can't lose market share & cash flow. Their underlying reasoning is that a positive demand shock will solve the problem soon to return to normality. That is preventing them from acknowledging that normality is uncertain.
Juan Carlos has woken up to new realities
1. Chinese lepidolite and African lithium mines aren't going bankrupt with lower prices like lithium hodlers want to put out as narrative- because Chinese buyers are paying them prices slightly above their low cost produce [and Chinese lithium mines rather operate at prices that cover variable costs than to close operations altogether]
2. Aussie miners may soon have to recognise that they could be in a precarious position of losing market share. Aussie miners would have to compete with Africa and SA for China's demand.
Lithium spot price and lithium stock prices would have to stay in winter hibernation possibly until 2027 when US and EU EVs will start ramping up, but by which time, many other Western lithium projects in US(such as Lithium America's Thacker Pass lithium), Canada and EU would have come onstream to supply.
