..this I wrote on this thread on 27 April 2024 (when the stock was $3.80 then):
..lithium hodlers often complain that the analysts have got it wrong, time and time again. Yes, they have, they underestimated the extent to which lithium could fall. As you can see below, all those assumptions and projections back then would be welcome with open arms today if it were true.
..slightly 4 months later, PLS share price has tanked -33% And Spod price assumption of $1700 in 2024 look like an absolute disastrous call [P.S Bell Potter to date still hanging onto $1200 price assumption for 2025].
PILBARA MINERALS (PLS)
BELL POTTER RESEARCH
Investment view – Hold, Target Price $3.55/sh (unchanged)
PLS is a large, liquid and clean exposure to global lithium fundamentals and sentiment. PLS is a low-cost producer, it operates in a tier one jurisdiction in Western Australia, and has a strong balance sheet ($1.7b net cash at 31 December 2023) which can withstand weaker lithium prices and support expansion programs. We are confident that EV-led demand will see strong long-term lithium market fundamentals. We see the potential for PLS to participate in industry consolidation. We retain our hold recommendation on valuation grounds.
It seems strange that Bell Potter has the above summary conclusion but yet their projected numbers reflect something less favourable
2024 est
NPAT $229 mil
PEx 41.3x
Spodumene Price Assumption: $1729 /ton
2025 proj
NPAT $227 mil
PEx 51.3x
Spodumene Price Assumption: $1400/ton
2026 proj
NPAT $513 mil
PEx 22.7x
Spodumene Price Assumption: $1600/ton
My points
1. It is unlikely they could achieve $1729/T this 2024, the latest quarter average was under $1k
2. Even at $1700+/T, a PE of 41.3x is very high, so its actual PE would be much higher at lower spodumene prices
3. Bell Potter does not believe Spodumene price would get any higher than $1600 over the next 3 years
PLS at current price is still trading at a premium relative to the situation the lithium industry is at.
It is therefore not surprising that it has been the target of shorters in recent times, but the faith in the lithium space remains strong which explains the disconnect between stock price and actual fundamentals.
BARCHART
The Barchart Technical Opinion rating is a 24% Sell with a Weakest short term outlook on maintaining the current direction.
PLS.AX - Pilbara Minerals Ltd Stock Price - Barchart.com
TRADINGVIEW
Strong Sell (1 day) Sell (1 week 1 month)
PLS Stock Price and Chart — ASXLS — TradingView
Technical Analysis of PILBARA MINERALS LIMITED (ASXLS) — TradingView
PLS runs the risk of breaking down to $3.20s if it breaks $3.74 which is just 6c below Friday's closing price.
PLS can be one stock that has achieved multibags in the past, that is IMO about to mean revert in due time, there is little support below $3.20.
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..this I wrote on this thread on 27 April 2024 (when the stock...
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