In our new update of our battery volumes on CES Online we see a growth of global EV battery volumes of 568% between 2030 and 2035. That’s an enormous pace fuelled by the first real large-volume EVs finally reaching end of life and with that a higher share of EV batteries being directed to recycling and reuse. This is also supported by the fact that the entire volume of EVs will be so much higher at this point. Still, the growth we will see the coming years will be even higher. But from very low numbers.
It’s therefore extremely important that recyclers find ways to profitably build positions when volumes are low to be able to profit from it when more feedstock will be available. More integrated business models with a high upstream service level that can generate revenues in today’s markets – or downstream operations with ability to process diverse feedstocks are likely the most plausible avenues. And the future customers and suppliers, the OEMs, should find way to support their recycling partners.
The good thing for whole value chain is that also other volumes of lithium-ion batteries are increasing. And when it comes to reuse it’s important to recognise that more volumes than ever are expected to be reused at this point in time. In fact the market for used batteries in 2035 is in our analysis expected to be larger than the whole market for new lithium-ion batteries in 2020.
...in a decade or longer, new lithium production supply would be less needed when there would be a large surplus of old recycled EV batteries from which lithium could be extracted, prompting CATL's CEO to indicate that no new battery minerals would need to be mine (by 2042). By then, the mine business could be shifting to EV battery recycling business.
...oddly, no analysts covering this space even acknowledge this risk to the lithium mining business nor the changing battery chemical technology.
...AND THESE ARE RISK ISSUES LITHIUM HODLERS WOULD NOT WANT TO TALK ABOUT.
..so will lithium be much needed as we progress in coming decade?
‘"By 2042, China will no longer need to mine new mineral materials because of its mature battery recycling market." - CEO of @catl_official
‘CATL currently has capacity to recycle as much as 99.6% of precious metals such as nickel, cobalt & manganese, and up to 91% of lithium.’
CONCLUSION: EVs would become the future, just a question of time, but if you believe that the fortunes of lithium mining would follow in proportionate growth to EV, well, THINK AGAIN.
