..an expectation of a rise in Spod price to $1,000 isn't enough to justify a buy on ASX lithium majors.
..a $1000 SC6 price won't be enough for LTR to turn a profit for 2025 and a $1.7B market cap remains elevated. UBS recommends to sell IGO, Liontown and Pilbara shares
Cecile Lefort
The temporary suspension of Chinese electric vehicle battery maker CATL will be positive for lithium prices, says UBS China lithium analyst Sky Han, forecasting the value around $US10,000 to $US11,000k/t.
He expects spodumene prices to climb as high as $US1000/t in the near term.
“We will need to see more supply come out to solve our 2025 surplus,” he said. “Key will be how the broader China lepidolite story evolves.”
UBS is wary of additional supply from Africa and stresses that it is the seaborne spodumene price – as opposed to the Guangzhou Futures Exchange price – that will be crucial for marginal Australian producers.
“We remain underweight the sector and look for more supply exits to turn positive,” UBS said.
UBS recommends selling shares in IGO, Liontown and Pilbara.
