An LTR lithium hodler commented:
"When I knocked back Gina's offer to buy all my holdings for $3 I did so because I thought the Macro picture would get us back to $3 in 12 months. I was wrong as I did not foresee the extraordinary drop in the lithium price."
* No, it wasn't the macro picture. Cult belief blinded holders to believe that LTR was worth more than $3, and that if they didn't sell it, they would torpedo the ALB takeover so they could dream of $6 into the future. But little did they realise and consider carefully that there were only 2 clear options ; if the ALB deal went through, $3 was all they were getting but if it fails, it would immediately dive because it was the TO that kept LTR at $3 and a bit higher while the other lithium stocks were already sinking. And they never believed in selling first $3 and buying back at lower prices, because lower price is a sure thing if the TO deal fails. Because of CGT. When people make CGT the first consideration rather than the second, you get sub-optimal decisions.
* Then when I cautioned about the macro picture landscape for lithium and offered my view that EV growth led by the Chinese would thrive on the back of and at the expense of lower for longer lithium price, the LTR forum chastised me as they do with any naysayers. Their cult-like unbridled belief in LTR's 'Ascendancy' blinded them to understanding the reality of the EV/Lithium space. After an extended period of a winter abyss, which I had warned on this thread since April this year and prior to that in the LTR forum, LTR hodlers are now starting to acknowledge poor macro outlook being the driver of their stock woes. Instead of blaming entirely and demonising shorters as being the ONLY reason for their stock price decline.
The point is no company, however great you think the management is, is immune from the vagaries of the marketplace.
Sadly it had to come to this point, when ASX lithium stocks are no longer even responding to better Spod prices nor correlated with US and China lithium stock performance. As I had warned lithium hodlers, when we get into the middle of winter, the lithium sector would enter into a period of large disinterest, void of speculative interests and the constant presence of extended distribution. You only get the occasional unsustained exuberance in the stock led by hopeful lithium price recovery.
Go back in time to my post on this thread to see where I think lithium stocks would head - Nordique retracement would see them complete a full Bell curve returning to base from where their stock price started their journey north.
Australian lithium is not in a good place. At least in the short and medium term.
