...Few want to believe that because demand for lithium (BYD&CATL primarily) derived from China are being met by supply that the Chinese themselves control (out of mines in China, South America and Africa), there is therefore a lack of demand impetus that would move the spot market lithium price.
...Few, but I have been saying all along.
...Demand for lithium will grow in line with demand for EVs, but on the back of continued low lithium price. Lithium hodlers like Juan continues to want to believe that
1. that because there will be EV growth, lithium price must necessarily go higher
2. and that the reason 1 hasn't happened is because supply exceeds demand
...It is not that China manipulates the lithium price, they can control it due to their control of the supply chain via vertical integration. And if that sounds the same to you, then so be it. But it is not, it is through well executed plan ahead of the pack, through stealth one could say.
...and as I mentioned, lithium price is not going to find its way out of the current winter hibernation
a. before the arrival and end of recession
b. until Western auto makers and Japan/Korean begin to rollout EV models in earnest to wrest some notable share away from the Chinese
...in addition, the bright spot for lithium spot market being Tesla is more likely to go into Robotaxi mode as a way around its current deteriorating global growth prospect due to the backlash against Elon. Robotaxi mode means less need to produce more Tesla for the American market and that means less lithium demand.
..plus with Trump's renewed investment in mineral exploration in the US, we should expect more lithium supply out of the US to ensure self sufficiency in the coming decade.
..keep waiting. I don't think the ASX lithium companies can survive long unless a major supplier (the likes of CATL) buys into them, but that option is not available due to national interest.
The lithium market is difficult to understand. Few figure out why the price continues to go down despite a 30% growth in demand in 2021-2024. The explanation is simple: Lithium supply growth outpaced demand and will continue to do so, unless a series of demand shocks occur https://x.com/jczuleta/status/1926768934360949165
