$TSLA's China crisis is the result of EV glut that can't be exported away.
When GF3 was built in late 2010s and later expanded multiple times, TSLA had assumed that what cant be sold in China could be exported away, a reasonable proposition then but not any more.
Worsening geopolitics b/t China and the US/allies diminished the market China made cars can go without tariff or administrative discriminations.
In other words, global adoption of Chinese EVs will never reach the 20+% rate that Japanese cars in the world. So what is TSLA going to do with the 50% unused GF3 capacity if and when Europe turns away exports from China.
I think that is more likely the agenda of Musk's trip this weekend, than "FSD" rollout. Almost all TSLA owners in China live in large cities w average daily commune within 30 minutes one way. Very few will pay for any sort of ADAS for such a short commune.
..this above from Junheng Li (JL Warren Capital LLC)
