...you'd wonder if Elon is simply cannibalising his Tesla sales with his Robotaxi concept.
...if Robotaxi can create a paradigm shift in transportation as we know it, Tesla could well become an Uber instead of a car maker.
...that too would have adverse implications for the lithium industry, because one Robotaxi could well displace several potential Tesla car buyers.
...what this tells us is that the future of lithium can be more fluid than what we are led to believe. Elon's interest is not with lithium, this vision could be to revolutionise the way we commute and drives vehicle ownership down. And that folks, I think, will appeal to the younger generation struggling to make ends meet.
Here's how I see it...
1) Initially the Robotaxi undercuts Uber/Lift. This is easy pickings.
2) Then the Robotaxi undercuts vehicle ownership - increasingly leading people to ditch their vehicles. If the vast majority of the population can save, say $5,000 or more, per year on their transportation costs - they will do it.
3) Cheap doesn't mean you can afford it: While the cost to make a robotaxi vehicle might only be 20K-25K, the value of a robotaxi is much more than that. This should lead Tesla to stop selling vehicles to people. Tesla should make vehicles for $20K, put them in their own fleet and make the annual $30K, $40K, $50K or more per year. Anything that can make you $30K to $50K per year should NOT be sold for $25K-$30K.
4) Cost of status goes up: The people that want status are going to have to pay a lot more for that - as fewer and fewer people purchase vehicles the economics of automakers get turned upside down very quickly. Whatever remaining vehicles are produced for purchase will become very expensive.
5) Insurance rates go through the roof: Insurance works because the costs are spread over millions of people. As more and more people opt for robotaxi, they won't be buying personal auto insurance - shrinking the pool of people to spread the losses over. In time, the only vehicles causing collisions will be the human driven ones. Insurance companies will increase the rates on human drivers.
6) Uninsured: The rising cost of personal auto insurance might also mean that many people decide to drive without insurance (this trend has already impacted the insurance industry and your auto insurance rates!). This might be the final straw that forces regulators to ban humans from driving on public roads.
7) In the end, cost is the key factor. Sure, there will always be people where cost is no object, but that subset of people is relatively small. If the cost of buying a vehicle is high and if the cost of insurance is high, the number of people willing/able to purchase a vehicle rapidly shrinks.
8) This change isn't incremental: Over time, we are going to witness a wholesale change in the way vehicle transportation works. Traveling by vehicle will become very cheap and we will see a lot more of it. It will disrupt public transportation (including school buses), airlines, many hotels, parking, and much more. We will also enjoy a much smoother flow of traffic - and a great saving of human life - which is Elon's/Tesla's gift to humanity.
