EV/Lithium

Originally posted by Taurisk ↑

@1ronnie - I think it is the same with all modern technologies - there is initially a lot of resistance and eventually it becomes commonplace and the next generation will wonder what all the fuss was about.
I still drive a petrol car and it will outlive me.
For now, there is only one EV-driver, with 2 cars, (both he and his wife drive one), within my circle of acquaintances - I bet you in 10 years time, it will be different.
By far the biggest polluters are ocean-going ships and aeroplanes - and what about industry???
. . . . and the transport needs of raw materials from their countries of origin?
and what about the many on-line companies one can buy goods from, many of which are based overseas, hence use air or ocean transport for their mail-outs (Amazon, Temu etc.all based in the U.S.A., all getting most of their goods from China, also depending on transfer by air or ocean).

Lithium will continue to play a big part in this necessary transformation and don't forget its other uses in batteries used for just about every aspect of our lives; my mother did not have a single electric gadget in her kitchen, apart from lighting and the kitchen radio and iron (I still remember having to grind the daily coffee manually - the little 'coffee mill' is now a decorative item in my kitchen) - I am not really a 'gadget' person, but have 4 items of electric kitchen gadgets, 2 in my bedroom, a vacuum cleaner, and a computer, a printer and mobile phone - not counting one TV, radios, 3-in-one radio, record- CDplayer - and one small electronic keyboard (plus a 'manual' piano) - plus 2 air-conditioning units.
Most of us are already living an 'electrified life'. . . now we just need better technologies for our transport needs and it is happening as we speak.
Taurisk

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Yes @Taurisk, what you say makes sense, but note that I did not at all say that EV isn't the future. It is and will be, just a matter of time.
But the point I was trying to make, and if you have gone through all the posts I have made, is that for EV to grow at the scale that was expected (e.g Tesla was expected to grow by 50pc pa for the next 30 years), you have to have mass adoption. And this is what is happening at an accelerating pace in China, because Chinese EV makers can sell them at an incredibly cheap price, but that is only possible largely because they are vertically integrated with access to cheap battery and cheap lithium and other critical minerals going into it. In other words, for EV to scale to the level at which its price can match that of ICE vehicles, EV makers will continuously endeavour to ensure they have access to cheap batteries (which makes up the largest cost component of an EV) and cheap lithium. And as the EV and supply chain markets start to mature to enable mass adoption, over time the early demand-supply imbalance would no longer be an issue and lithium prices would likely stay moderate. Which means lithium companies won't be enjoying the sort of premium margins they got accustomed to in the past 1-3 years. And lower margins and higher competition along with a gradually maturing market means lithium stock valuations are unlikely to scale back up to where they got to before.

Australian lithium miners first mover advantages would gradually erode over time.

Secondly, as with all other sectors (see an earlier post), every hyped sector tend to see a front-running of their potential and we're seeing that with Tesla stock underperforming the rest of its S&P500 cohorts. Front-running means those EV makers and lithium miners got ahead of themselves in valuations and now they're in for a more protracted period of winter consolidation.

EXPECTATIONS is what drives stock prices. A good stock can go sideways or even fall further if it does not meet lofty expectations, despite making profits. Expectations also include market forward outlook of the sector ahead.