A domestic slowdown and booming exports can be two sides of the...

A domestic slowdown and booming exports can be two sides of the same coin.

Weak demand at home (vehicle sales are below their 2018 levels) is part of the story behind China's auto export boom for example.

https://x.com/Brad_Setser/status/1794031477937860766


...there are a lot of stale bulls in the lithium space. The optimism is dented, not broken. Because EV is continued to be viewed with a positive lens.

...but so was solar back in 2007-08 and optimism was dented in 2010 but not broken until a year later. Then it was a protracted winter hibernation for solar stocks, despite the fact that solar power went on to be more prominently installed with strong growth.

...the thing is market participants continue to believe that EV growth must only be great for lithium. Yes, lithium would continue to be in demand because of EV but that does not necessarily come with higher lithium prices, which I'd argue otherwise i.e that EV growth will continue at the expense of lithium prices staying lower for longer. And the belief that strong demand for lithium must necessarily translate into higher prices for lithium stocks. Not when lithium stocks remain traded at a premium predicated on the notion that lithium prices have bottomed. Bottomed it (lithium prices) may have been, depending on where the EV story progresses, but unlikely to go high enough to result in a valuation re-rate of lithium stocks for some time yet.