I know there is this ideology Oil (right) vs Lithium (left) - why does it have to be that way?
Black or White and nothing in between.
I think oil will co-exist with lithium for some time more, and if we see peak oil in 2025 it would be because of a global recession rather than because of EV/lithium.
The disconnect is confounding even the best of lithium pundits. Not enough consideration has been given to a) China's stockpiling behaviour - there could huge amounts of lithium and battery inventory to wind down b) increasing lithium and mineral recovery/recycling effort c) new sources of lithium supply not previously disclosed by Chinese d) lower amounts of lithium used per EV unit
e) Chinese EV makers have their own controlled lithium mines which can sell them cheaper or at low prices f) many smaller lithium miners become price takers as larger EV makers like BYD are less dependent on them as they are on the EV makers to supply to; if they don't sell at cheaper prices to break even or make small losses, they would be forced to close down and shed their staff and lose everything, so supplying at cheap prices can at least buy them some hope of recovery further down the road.
Eventually Aussie lithium miners are subject to market/spot pricing which will likely only get lower as African and Chilean and Argentinian mines start producing them at much cheaper prices. Aussie lithium stock holders would like to think that their lithium quality would set them apart - minimum battery grade standard is a minimum that all mines would have to adhere to, it won't matter if we better comply with environmental standards if we can't sell at prices what other mines can.
Even Gina would have to learn the hard way that Lithium is not Iron Ore.
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The demand for #lithium is a derived demand for the final products that use Li. Today, ~70% of the Li produced in the world is used in batteries for EVs. So, in principle, there should be a strong positive relationship between EV sales & Li prices. But this is bit more complex.
