...you see below lithium hodlers like to console themselves that the demand for lithium would remain strong for years to come. So message is stay strong holding and be patient.
Amazing. It will require about 32 t #lithium carbonate or hydroxide.
Meet the world's largest all-electric ferry out for delivery in 2025: It has capacity for 2,100 passengers & 225 cars. Batteries can store >40MWh & will be 4x larger than any battery installation
https://x.com/jczuleta/status/1802828435670315208
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...tell that to a Cisco stock holder in 2000 that the internet is here to stay, of course internet only went from strength to strength but Cisco overshot its valuation premium and suffered a huge mean reversion despite internet becoming mainstream. Similarly tell that to the First Solar investor in 2008-09, solar being renewable will grow, it did but wasn't as high as earlier expected, so First Solar crashed and stayed down for more than a decade. Also tell that to the oil stock holder after the Ukraine war, when narrative was all about oil supply deficit when I said it was demand that was important, energy stocks lost their mojo not long after. Now tell that to the copper stock holder, again narrative around copper supply deficits, when it is all about China.
...certainly lithium is going nowhere and here to stay and its relevance will be even greater in the years ahead. Which is why lithium mines are sprouting everywhere across the globe, and we should expect that future demand will be well met by future supply. The lithium mean reversion is no different to internet, solar, oil, copper and soon AI.
....That's the way it has always been when EXPECTATIONS ran ahead of delivery. So stock valuations went too north expecting large growth, but when the 'score' is finally known and underwhelming, we should expect Mean Reversion. Typically, stocks undergoing mean reversion as every case had suggested, they would consolidate at low base for a protracted time, for several years sometimes even a decade long. And the length of consolidation could be compounded by a recession the odds of which is increasing, not decreasing. If you have all that much time to wait and be patient, then good for you. But there's an opportunity cost to holding a dead stock - there's a 5% risk free return on cash, at least for a good 1 year or more.
