EV/Lithium, page-741

....EVs need to be cheap to replace ICE vehicles, and for it to be cheap, lithium staying low would certainly help.
....China is able to make the EV transition fast because it does not rely on free market to make it happen
.....in USA, Trump would allow Americans to have the freedom to choose, and auto makers will decide for themselves when they would make EV transition and they are deferring full EV rollouts..even Biden's mandate is unable to get things moving as fast.
....EU economy is struggling and many of EU EVs are made in China
....so where would the centre of lithium consumption be for the next couple of years at least - China.

...if EVs were growing everywhere across the globe in a material way all at the same time, as what market observers had previously assumed, then we could envisage a situation in which lithium supply would be unable to meet demand, resulting in a price hike. But this is not the case. Over the next 3 years, perhaps ICE vehicles would be completely phased out in China, and there would be significant amount of EV batteries that can go in recycling, so EV replacement vehicles may not require as much lithium. CATL boss Robin said that in a few years they would be in a position to recycle 91% of lithium from used EV batteries. By then, EV penetration focus would gather steam in US/EU and developing world - the demand for lithium would shift from China to rest of the world.
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The pace of the transition to EVs will hinge on their cost
In China, more than 60% of electric cars sold in 2023 were already cheaper than conventional equivalents
Competition & innovation are expected to bring down prices in other major markets

https://x.com/IEA/status/1808146140627456417