Vehicle sales/production grew globally from 58million in 2000 to...

Vehicle sales/production grew globally from 58million in 2000 to 94million in 2023. But the long term average price of Oil over that period minus all the fluctuations has not been much higher. In fact, the price of Oil today is no higher than when it was some 50 years ago.

Worldwide automobile production | Statista
Crude Oil Prices - 70 Year Historical Chart | MacroTrends

Higher vehicle sales did not result in a proportionate increase in the price of Oil, a cheaper Oil price only serve to boost demand for ICE vehicles. Something OPEC is clearly aware of, that a substantially higher oil price is not in their long term interest because it serves to result in demand destruction so what it gains in price it loses in volume.

So applying the same economic parallels with EV, we will see more EVs produced and sold globally over time, EV growth is assured and just moderated in the short run, but lithium price would over time mirror that of Oil, as the industry matures and lithium gets commoditised just like Oil. The first mover advantage that early lithium producers received is over, and along with that their valuation premiums.

Going forwards, I see the Exxon and Rio Tinto being the big boys coming into the lithium scene. Exxon could easily gobble ALB up and become an overnight largest lithium player at the right moment. I do not see our PLS or MIN or LTR being anywhere in the Tier 1 Lithium league - IMO they won't be a BHP. The reason why Exxon or ALB can be the leaders is because they have financial power and more importantly a large domestic EV market.

BHP depends largely on China for its iron ore revenues. If China had options elsewhere, BHP would not be commanding such a commanding position with China. But this is not the case with lithium, China has its own lithium mines in China, and has quickly acquired mines in emerging countries such as Chile, Argentina and Bolivia in South America and Zimbabwe, Mali, Nigeria in Africa. We can only supply the additional tons to China what they can't source from their own controlled mines. While in due time, US would have proximity access to Lithium America's Thacker Pass huge mine, and many other lithium mines in Canada and South America (via ALB). They too will buy from their American mines before buying ours, as shipping costs get larger.

So eventually I have a feeling that our Australian lithium mines would be acquired by an Exxon which may want to develop a global presence, but this could years away.