The implications are more EVs and power packs sold, lithium...

The implications are more EVs and power packs sold, lithium demand, and Li supply. Since Li supply is reacting faster than demand, a temporary Li oversupply is occurring which explains the current low Li prices. As demand starts to catch up & surpasses supply, prices will rebound

https://x.com/jczuleta/status/1810963004873224213

...Carlos says oversupply is temporary while demand will catch up.

* Will EV demand improve?
> I think EV demand will drop for next 1-2 years especially with a recession, and rise thereafter (EV sales are going backwards in EU and US and only a matter of time for China as well)
* Higher EV must translate into higher lithium demand right?
> We have to ask higher demand from whom? CATL and BYD which commands 52% of EV battery market both have their own lithium mines (in China, SA, Africa) to tap on with only surplus of needs overflowing into demand from spot market. Chinese EVs will make up a large % of the EVs produced over next 2-3 years so most of the lithium would be consumed in China
> With increasing number of batteries moving to LFP and inclusion of sodium-ion over time, lithium quantities per EV batteries produced would be reducing

* Is oversupply temporary?
> It won't be temporary because the assumption behind 'temporary' is that EV demand would resume at fast pace and that low lithium price is going to result in many abandoned lithium projects.
> More supply projects are coming out of South America (Chile/Argentina/Bolivia) and Africa (Zimbabwe/Mali/Nigeria) which are state sponsored and will proceed. In addition all lithium explorers/developers in Canada and EU are progressing with all the huge capex involved - if they don't, they would lose considerably, so it is better to operate and produce to sell at variable cost if that's what it takes.

Stale bulls have not come to terms that winter hibernation for lithium would last 1-2 years maybe longer. And that with prospect of recession within 12 months, things can only get worse for the EV/Lithium sector. It is a story to be re-visited in 3 years or later, but even then it is plausible that lithium stock all time highs would never get re-visited again.