EV/Lithium, page-9

...from what has transpired,
1) EV growth is likely to be faster in China than in US/Europe
2) Chinese EV makers are cutting EV prices to spur domestic growth
3) Chinese EV makers are able to do (2) above because battery costs (and critical mineral prices going into it) have gone down significantly
4) Chinese EV industry has significant advantage over US/EU rivals is because they are well vertically integrated in entire supply chain- from control of lithium mines, lithium processing to battery making and EV production
5) China can and will suppress lithium and nickel prices to achieve its aim of reducing battery costs to produce unrivalled quality EVs at prices no car maker can match in US and EU.
6) That has led to US/EU car makers to step back from earlier EV all-in plans and forced Renault to send out an SOS letter to the EU to do something before China eats all their lunch.
7) Meanwhile, consumers in US have stepped back in early enthusiasm for EVs and pivoting towards hybrids (see Ford move)
8) If Trump wins presidency, he could reverse partially or fully Biden's IRA which provides subsidies for EVs, that could further stymie demand for EVs in the US.


Anyone betting on Li-Ion prices going up, or even staying flat.... it's likely going to be a blood bath - both for the big incumbents, and new entrants with a better mousetrap who aren't at scale.

https://x.com/clawrence/status/1775885501104562557