EV/Lithium

..Lithium hodlers have IMO a short window left to salvage

1. Lithium price is turning south and holders are in denial to expect a recovery when the US and global economy are heading south
2. Lithium stock price recovery is a knee jerk FOMO recovery in this short final Melt-up phase that is nothing more than IMO an opportunity to sell into strength
3. When the equity market train wreck/crash kicks-in, they would all be heading for all time lows

...and Tesla is pivoting away from EV deliveries to AIC.

Lithium price and Lithium stock prices aren't going to recover before an equity market meltdown ahead.

You can choose to be as long term as you want, but a sector that is already on the edge/brink would not miraculously outperform a broader market downturn.

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Morgan Stanley's Adam Jonas: "As @Tesla continues to diversify away from the auto industry and towards the autonomous industrial complex (AIC), we wanted to highlight some interesting information that, while they didn't grab any headlines, may be consequential over time." '

His thoughts:
• Services & Other revenue growing fast: Revenues from these operations hit $2.6bn in 2Q. This is 10.2% of total company revenue in 2Q24 and 9.7% of sales on a trailing LTM basis. It's notable that the Services & Other revenues increased 21% YoY while automotive revenues decreased during the same period. The increases were primarily due to "increases in non-warranty maintenance services and collision revenue, used vehicle revenue, insurance services revenue, paid Supercharging revenue and part sales revenue. We note that these 'services' revenues should largely grow in line with the growth of Tesla's installed car population which we forecast rises to 24mm units by 2030 (a 24% CAGR from 2024 through 2030). We also note that the margins derived from after-sales/service of the car fleet are typically far higher than point-of-sale margins.

• China sales have peaked - will likely continue to fall as a % of total revenue from here: Tesla's China sourced revenues accounted for 18.2% of total Tesla revenues in 2Q24. While this line may exhibit seasonal volatility in the quarters ahead, we expect the long-term trend for Tesla's China exposure to continue to fall systematically. By 2030, we forecast that China accounts for approximately 10% of Tesla auto unit volume and between 6 and 7% of total group revenue. We recently asked the question "What is Tesla's future in China?" In our opinion, if Tesla (or any other US company) were to ‘solve’ the robotaxi problem, we believe it would be highly unlikely that company would be allowed to offer such technology within the PRC. The dual purpose element of embodied AI carries obvious national security sensitivities.