....Juan used to say the problem for lithium price was DEMAND...

....Juan used to say the problem for lithium price was DEMAND (or the lack of it), now he is saying SUPPLY (or the eventual lack of it) would drive lithium prices back to recovery.

....lithium enthusiasts don't ever give up, do they?

....this is like the oil bulls pitching the supply deficit narrative back then, oil price went lower anyway.

....For commodities, it is ALL ABOUT DEMAND, supply is a longer term issue. You can say that there's a shortage of supply of copper but when there's a recession, no one cares if there isn't as much supply, traders trade on demand.

...as for lithium, it has a unique situation. Demand for EVs is dropping and so has demand for lithium. But there will still be a large demand for lithium, unless we have a recession, and that is enough for Chile/Argentina/Bolivia/US/Africa/Canada to continue with their lithium projects and the Chinese owned mines in those emerging economies are not going to stop producing because they don't really have to make profits. CATL's mine in Bolivia will supply them the lithium they need, the mine does not need to be profitable to stay in operations- so with lithium, supply in a vertically integrated chain would ensure that there won't be a mark drop in supply even with lithium prices at or below production costs.

....and US via Lithium America is sitting on possible the biggest lithium mine on planet Earth after Bolivia and Chile, and in due time USA would be producing lots of lithium for itself. This is why Australian lithium mines dependent on an export market in an increasingly competitive market would have a lot to be worried about (its future).

As anticipated just a few hrs ago, the coming #lithium price rebound will be supply-related. Here is why. "The question now is, if prices stagnate or even fall further, how long can companies operating at marginal costs maintain normal production?"
https://x.com/jczuleta/status/1818152992484315589