(apologies for long, partially philosophical post.. had a couple of glasses of vino..)
In regards to China:
'The world’s biggest coal consumer is expected to see total consumption fall 18% from 2018 to 2035, and by 39% from 2018 to 2050, the CNPC Economics and Technology Research Institute, run by the state-owned China National Petroleum Corp (CNPC), forecast in a report on Thursday.'
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-...5-global-usage-to-follow-report-idUSKCN1VD0BD
(India concerns me more.. as their middle class is yet to grow)
Anyway, IMO the coming 5 years will be pretty eye opening in regards to the pretty sad state of the world, and I believe there will be stronger and stronger pressure (from voters) on governments to do more with respect to greenhouse gasses (hence prediction models will have to change). There is nowhere to hide. At current rate the world is quickly changing beyond repair.
If anyone is keeping up with 2019 news: The Greenland ice sheet is close to point of no return, with shocking acceleration just this year, permafrost melting in Siberia (releasing huge amounts of methane, 25 times more potent greenhouse gas than CO2), the Amazon and Siberia on fire, accelerating desertification.. I love the movie 'Interstellar', but I now see that as a premonition of what is to come. Not in 1,000 years, but during our kids or grandkids life. The reader might shake her/his head, but
what if? Is the '
what if' not worse than taking counter action??
The time walking around with blinkers is over. Things will change both in our environment an in our fight to save what's left. All these countries saying 'we do such and such' by 2050 isn't good enough.
No, I'm not an environmental watermelon, but through my academic position (A/Prof in biomedical sciences) I have had the pleasure to meet some very eminent people (environmental researchers and others), and the consensus is that we are in trouble. Last week I had lunch with a Professor from Imperial College, and the words 'I think we are fvcked' were uttered. To TRY and avoid that, we should all do what we can - I've stopped eating red meat, I don't have a car until BEV, recycle and demand plastic reduction, minimise electricity usage etc. We are the voters/consumers - demand improvements/change.
Yes, I believe in BEV, as I really do not see any other (long term) solution. In a not too distant future, all ICE will have to go. Aus you might point to problems, but to me problems are to be solved (as I usually tell my staff/students - 'try to come to me with solutions, not problems'). Regardless of solution, I'm here hoping LYC will be part of it.
'
There is NO meaningful linkage between BEV and a "clean" grid in the overall context of global emissions'
I didn't say there was, but that is the way things will head - a full green chain. If you don't live in and experience other more progressive countries (I mean from an environmental aspect) you may not see/hear the change coming. I'm Swedish born, brought up in Sweden/Finland, studied (and currently based) in London, lived in Japan for months at a time the past ten years, lived in Sydney for 12 years (still employed by USyd). I'm telling you, from personal experiences in these countries, change is coming and it's coming fast.
This is NOT putting Scandinavian countries on a pedestal (e.g being nuclear isn't without issues), but in the above aspects they are leading the way, and I can't help but thinking (hoping) it will provide impetus for other countries. I do not intend to discuss the merits of hybrids vs others at length, I just know that we have to change our way of life asap, or we better quickly come up with exoplanet plans..
I've forgotten the point of this post..
GLTAH
(20min delay)