Do you think it any coincidence the bottom mkt share chart stacks up remarkably similar to that of GDP per capita below, particularly positioning major mkts Germany, France & UK?
View attachment 1711744April 2019:
EU – high incentives, high market uptakeThe more incentives, the more EVs“The market share of electrically-chargeable vehicles is only substantial in those countries which offer extensive (fiscal and non-fiscal) incentives,” concluded the European Automobile Manufacturers Association (ACEA) when researching the correlation of EV incentives in Europe and its market uptake. Which is remarkable since the incentives vary significantly between the various European countries and hence so does their EV market uptake.
For instance, the Scandinavian countries are known as EV pioneers where a wide variety of incentives results in a high EV uptake. The EV market leader Norway, for instance, with a market share of nearly 40% (2017) has a wide array of incentives, such as purchase tax exemption for BEVs and FCEVs, and a reduced purchase tax for PHEVs (up to €10.000), and an additional exemption from VAT and import tax for BEVs and FCEVs.The higher the GDP, the higher share of EVsHence, the EV incentives might contribute to the market uptake, yet they cannot be the only explanatory factor. The ACEA has made another comparative analysis, in addition to the one of the EV incentives and concludes that there is a correlation between the GDP and EV market share as well.
“The market share of ECVs is practically 0% in countries with a GDP below €18,000, including the new EU member states in Central and Eastern Europe but also crisis-torn Greece,” concludes the research. “By contrast, an ECV market share of above 1.8% only occurs in countries with a GDP per capita of more than €35,000.” This division explains why Norway is an EV leading country, while Poland lags behind. “Many people take the Norwegian market as a benchmark. But just like its €67,000 GDP, more than twice the EU average, Norway’s 39.3% ECV share is an exception in Europe.” In fact, half of all 28 EU member states have an ECV market share of 0.75% or lower.https://www.globalfleet.com/en/taxa...]=Electric&t[1]=Tax incentives&curl=1Now have a look at where most of that growth has come from in the two most highly subsidised countries:
https://eu-evs.com/pivot.htmlOpen the window and select "Magic" Pivot button at the top RHS of header.
Select COUNTRY and untick Spain for monthly sales Norway & Netherlands.
18,650 Mod3 were new model sales for the 6 months largely on pre order.
3,780 Audi E-TRON ditto.
Apart from the Q re subsidies the big issue is can Mod3 particularly sustain those sales numbers having exhausted its pre-order book in EU? Same Q in the US where H2 18 sales basically doubled as Mod3 order book was filled:
https://insideevs.com/news/362819/ev-sales-scorecard-july-2019/With Tesla subsidies now cut to 25% (zero from next Jan) high chance US will fail to reach 2018 sales numbers, and very much dependent on the continued reaction to the subsidy cuts in China (also zero from next Jan) global sales may struggle to grow much on 2018 levels, already seeing forecast cuts, incl official Chinese.
And let's put BEV sales in perspective to subsidy cuts July and again from Jan 2020:
And it is very much relevant here as BEV is one of the key demand stories behind NdFeB, and it's largely dependent subsidies, as the 457 manufacturers China are realising about now.
https://www.scmp.com/business/china...ic-vehicle-showrooms-are-sending-ominous-signAnd circling back to the land of kumbaya:
According to provisional data published today by the European Environment Agency (EEA), the average carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions from new passenger cars registered in the European Union (EU) in 2018 increased for the second consecutive year, reaching 120.4 grammes of CO2 per kilometre. For the first time, the average CO2 emissions from new vans also increased. Manufacturers will have to reduce emissions of their fleet significantly to meet the upcoming 2020 and 2021 targets.https://www.eea.europa.eu/highlights/average-co2-emissions-from-newSo despite the $quillions in EU subsidies, and all the glossies, average emissions have RISEN over the past two years.
Whatever shall we do?
(20min delay)
