We are nowhere near cost parity, you can still buy a small ICE...

We are nowhere near cost parity, you can still buy a small ICE for the cost of a battery pack, let alone manufacturer's margins, return on capital, etc, and despite your rose coloured glasses there is plenty of evidence to suggest the greater population resistant to BEV, hence the massive subsidies, and VW experimenting with video gaming tech to try and entice punters.

Your "IMF subsidies" are a crock.

NO one is talking thirty years, the next of three emissions caps kicks in over the next two years in all the major mkts, EU, US & China.

The very simple fact is BEV cannot achieve those targets alone, and it would be very interesting to factor the net impact of plug-ins with emissions from coal fired electricity added back.

BEV consuming more NdFeB definitely right per unit simple P0 MHEV but that would become more marginal as the complexity of topography grew, and remember MHEV is sustainable, more available energy to do more things without range anxiety = more motors.

The other kicker is numerous forecasts suggest MHEV will outsell both BEV & PHEV by 2025 so even if they average 50% of NdFeB demand they would be significant, even 25%.

That is an unknown at this point, just how far manufacturers & importantly customers will embrace MHEV and drive the complexity/NdFeB demand, but my original content two years ago that 48VMH would be additive to demand looks in good shape.

The other big unknown is just how well BEV growth will stand up to the Brave New World sans subsidies major mkts China & US.