I posted this in another thread and will make it specific to here.
This graph below is self explanatory:
Source: RNU presentation in Post #: 45585318
It especially supports my views in this table below given we are currently at about 300 GWh and the forecasts are 2000 GWh by 2030, and this translates to the need for a number of new mines (converting to spodumene equivalent) and provides existing mines expansion potential should they have the reserves and are able to tap those reserves at reasonable production cost etc etc
Just to show that 1,800,000 LCE, and assuming average battery size 50 KWh this gives about 22.2 EVs per tonne of LCE equivalent, or roughly 40 million EVs produced in 2030 if all the 2000 estimated GWh capacity comes to fruition. The bigger the battery the less EVs produced but spodumene need stays the same at 2000 GWh etc. Numbers appear in line with the above graph too.
2nd hand vehicle market
Battery improvements, especially through increasing energy density and making the batteries lighter thus improving efficiency and performance to recharge are making EVs competitive to ICE vehicles. In addition, improving battery technology and distance achieved also allows for the establishment of a 2nd hand vehicle market IMO, just like ICE vehicles, and that becomes the sign of a mature market and one that further develops EV demand.
The fact Telsa is raving on about a 1 million km battery is probably a good thing in terms of the 2nd hand vehicle market, just like the current ICE vehicle 2nd hand market - longer life batteries help that market. A lot of people change their vehicles after 5 years to 7 years, for some unknown reason so that adds to lithium demand, and having a 2nd vehicle market aids that growth as well (trade ins etc).
At the end of the day the increasing capture of market share from ICE vehicles by EVs will increase the need for a number of new greenfields developments by 2030 and obviously expansions of exiting mines, where feasible.
AJM impact
I have previously stated that in the March quarter it would appear that AJM produced over half its production from the coarse circuit. This implies too me that AJM is able to produce good quality spodumene itself, and that IMO can only further improve with floatation product - Post #:
45496477
So as an existing producer, AJM is well placed to further expand, assuming it continues to remain a low cost producer, but more importantly
find more resource to expand production. I went through resource estimates in this post, and at this stage IMO AJM needs t find more resource to take up the opportunities presented by forecast EV growth - Post #:
45081947
All IMO IMO
