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clock Created with Sketch. 07/08/24
14:02
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Originally posted by dynofish:
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Over the last 12-18 months, I have asked myself whether I am being realistic when I think (and hear) about the Chinese conspiracy to control all levels of the lithium value chain. When in 2022 I first heard about the introduction of the Shanghai futures market I thought that there was an ulterior motive other than simply to allow industry particpants to hedge exposures. Since then we have seen the entire industry become hostage to speculators and hedge funds using the derivatives market and also the vertical integration of supply lines in China and Africa where sub-economic product undermines the producers elsewhere.
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Big oil will likely make enormous profit before they slowly (very slowly) become part of history. High oil demand will be required for decades even under the most aggressive EV adoption curves. Factor that with very limited supply development over the last 10 years and the price of oil will rise very high, potentially at the back end of this declade. I think ultimately this will likely accelerate the adoption of EV, but big oil will have plenty of money to decide on their future.
(20min delay)