Evaluation

At the bottom of this post is my (possibly crude?) attempt at valuing RED - which came to $0.28.
This shows RED is still undervalued despite the recent share price rise.

I also see significant upside to the valuation:

• Gold price likely to be a lot higher over next 10 years
• Gold production likely to grow far beyond June quarter guidance over next 10 years
• RED likely to be producing gold beyond 10 years

Risks to the valuation:

• Gold price may fall (contrary to expectations)
• AISC likely higher than the June quarter guidance over next 10 years
• All the other risks typically associated with mining stocks

Have I oversimplified the numbers? Have I missed anything major?
Keen to hear people's thoughts.

Quarterly Profits
Gold production = 29,000 oz/qtr (basis: midpoint of June qtr guidance)
AISC = $1,375 AUD/oz (basis: midpoint of June qtr guidance)
Sale price = $1,900 AUD/oz (basis: 30 day average gold price)

Profit before tax = $15,225,000 AUD/qtr
Tax rate = 27.5%
After tax profit (S) = $11,038,125 AUD/qtr

Stock Valuation
Discount rate (r) = 5%
Periods (n) = 10 years (40 quarters)
Company present value (PV) = S x ((1 - (1 / (1 + r) ^ n)) / r) = $345,790,604 AUD

Number of ordinary shares (q) = 1,243,200,000
Stock value = PV/q = $0.278 AUD/share