MQG is going to take somemore big write downs on stakes it holds...

MQG is going to take somemore big write downs on stakes it holds in its real estate funds (the Australian listed property trust sector has been hammered) and probably some of the other listed managed funds like MMG and MCG which have come off sharply recently. That said, the advisory and equity capital markets business continue to be leaders in the Australian market and the managed funds only contribute 20% to earnings.

In the current environment its impossible to value anything right now as its extremely difficult to evaluate the risk underpinning earning streams and the politicians keep changing the playing field.

I personally am not in the market as I want to get a sense on what the unemployment rate will peak at and no one is really sure what this will be. I think the market will start to bottom when this and the collateral damage it will have on businesses and the economy become clearer- at the moment everyone is just guessing as no one has any idea how deep the recession will be (I can't see whats going to stop something close to a Depression in the United States- don't think Australia though).

That all said, I think if Macquarie survives- which I am sure it will, then it will emerge with limited competition-Allco, MFS, Babcock and Challenger are finished or struggling/ the US investment banking industry no longer exists- and Macquarie will pick up alot of assets cheaply at the other end. Today's Macquarie price will look extremely cheap.