Every dog has its day?, page-21

You have an interesting perspective on incoming cash @VYR.

Interestingly, in the Sep'18 quarterly, the estimated cash outflow for Dec'18 was $39m & the Dec'18 cash outflow actually turned out to be $42.65m.

Looking at the Dec'18 quarterly, the estimated cash outflow for Mar'19 is $41.237m (let's round that up to $42m).

So then, assuming Jun'19 expenses is approximately similar to Mar'19 expenses (a reasonable assumption), the projected cash outflow (Mar'19 + Jun'19) is circa $84m (expenses). Assuming BLK can sell gold at an average price of $1720/oz, they would have to recover 48837 oz of gold ($84m expenses divided by $1720/oz) over the next half just to cover expenses with no improvement in liquidity. Given that BLK have downgraded production, recovering & selling 48837 oz gold in the next half is probably extremely unlikely.

If there's an unexpected malfunction with the plant, or a significant geotech issue (previously experienced in 2017), the operation will probably grind to a halt pretty quick (kaputski).

I'd say BLK is pretty close to a cot case, but I hope I'm wrong. There's always the possibility of finding a pocket of higher-grade that you mentioned: it will probably need to be a fairly large pocket (big-ish oval size comes to mind).