We saw some interesting action at the closing auction today. There was easily the largest volume of shares traded today than has been traded in the last 12 months, emphasised by the volume of shares trade at 4.10 in the auction.
So I decided to start a charting both of the gold price and EVN's chart. Also included charts of NST , GOR and QAU (Beta shares gold bullion currency hedged to the Aussie dollar (QAU.ax).
Bear with me folks because there is a lot to see. The first one is difficult ( US gold price) for all the other charts its easy to see what I am talking about
Firstly lets look at the gold price in US dollars. What does it reveal?
These are the instructions you should follow to see what I want to reveal as I can't find out how to post this first chart. Sorry folks my instructions are tedious but the result is very much worth looking at. If anyone can find a way to post these results in a chart you will be my champion, so here goes.
Go to https://goldprice.org/gold-silver-ratio.html and click on gold, This is a chart of the US gold price daily, Next click on time interval and click on weekly, next click on the the far right tab of indicators with a wavy line and the Plus symbol then scroll down to Moving averages and click this will add the 9 week moving average to your chart, next go to the second from the right symbol which is a cog wheel and then change the interval to 10 weeks.
There is more click, again on the wavy line and plus symbol and scroll down to linear regression and click to add it to the chart. Finally go again to the cog wheel and change the setting for upper deviation from 2 to 1.8 and the lower deviation from -2 to -1.8.
Then finally you will see what I see.
From the week 30th Apr 2018 the weekly hi-low prices fell into the channel of linear regression of +1.8 and _1.8. But two weeks early the week of 16 Apr 2018 the weekly hi-low candle trade entirely above the 10WMA. While the week 30 Apr was entirely below the 10WMA closing for that week at 1314 (bearish sign). So what happens next?
The US gold price continues to fall for 23 weeks from 1314 before the bullish sign appears, that is trading for the week 15 Oct 2018 with the Hi-lo candle entirely above the 10WMA closing at 1225. With the low for the period 1163. Bear run to bull from 1314 to 1225 after 23 weeks with a low of 1163. from 30 Apr 2018 to 15 Oct 2018
Next from the week 15 Oct 2018 (close at 1225 ) it took 21 weeks for the bull to turn into the bear on the 4 March 2019 closing at 1295 with the high peak for this period at 1346. Bull to bear 21 weeks from 1225 to 1298 with peak at 1346. From 15 Oct 2018 to 4 March 2019
Next was a shallow bear run from 4 Mar 2019 closing at 1298 for 14 weeks with a low of 1260 and turning into a bull run on the week of 3 Jun 2019 closing at 1340. Shallow Bear run 14 weeks from 1295 got to a low of 1260 and the bull run starts at 1340, 4 Mar 2019 to 3 Jun 2019 a bit of a positive sign.
What happens next?
Bull run starts on the week of 3 June at 1340 running for 20 weeks and it reaches a high of 1560 before the bull turns into a bear on the week of 7 Oct 2019 closing at 1490. Bull run of 20 weeks from 1340 peaking at 1560 ending at 1490. From 3 Jun 2109 to 7 Oct 2019.
Bear run 7 Oct 2019 closing at 1490 runs for 11 weeks , with a low of 1448 before turning into a bull run on the 30 Dec 2019 closing at 1552, Again shallow bear run 11 weeks from 1490 low of 1448 turning into a bull run at 1552. From 7 Oct 2019 to 30 Dec 2019.
Current situation Bull run starts on 30 Dec 2019 at 1552 and we are in the 7th week of this run.
Summary
1) Bear run to bull from 1314 to 1225 after 23 weeks with a low of 1163. from 30 Apr 2018 to 15 Oct 2018
2) Bull to bear 21 weeks from 1225 to 1298 with peak at 1346. From 15 Oct 2018 to 4 March 2019
3) Shallow Bear run 14 weeks from 1295 got to a low of 1260 and the bull run starts at 1340, 4 Mar 2019 to 3 Jun 2019, a bit of a positive sign.
4) Bull run of 20 weeks from 1340 peaking at 1560 ending at 1490. From 3 Jun 2109 to 7 Oct 2019.
5) Again shallow bear run 11 weeks from 1490 low of 1448 turning into a bull run at 1552. From 7 Oct 2019 to 30 Dec 2019.
6) Bull run starts on 30 Dec 2019 at 1552 and we are in the 7th week of this run. Current price 1572.
So we a long bear run to start this sequence 23W, bullish for 21w , bearish 14w, bullish 20w ,bearish 11w and currently on bullish for the 7th week. Bearish periods are shortening while the bullish sequences seem to run for around 20 weeks. So lets see what the US gold price is around mid May.\
Next look at the channels formed by the chart of linear regression at 1.8 to -1.8.
From the very first bearish sign on the 30 Apr 2018 on the 10WMA the SP dropped from the blue zone upper 1.8 into the red zone -1.8 and lingered there until July 2019 . It has stayed there mostly in the blue zone with only a period of 5 weeks where in touched into the red zone, but back into the blue zone for 8 weeks so far.
I am going to have to cut this short tonight, it late. We have been out with former neighbors to a Japaneses restaurant and more than a few wines.
I will continue to add to this post over the coming days. I ain't finished yet. Got to go into the EVN , NST , GOR and QAU charts yet. But first to sleep.
All the signs look bullish especially after todays action closing action with EVN and the US GP
Just my opinion , DYOR.
good luck folks.
cheers Lies
EVN Price at posting:
$4.10 Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
(20min delay)
