Hi folks
As promised I am continuing this thread but only with a few small additions, but food for thought. I am playing golf tomorrow , usually buggered so I will add to this post on Sunday.
Everything between the line of stars has been posted before.
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We saw some interesting action at the closing auction today. There was easily the largest volume of shares traded today than has been traded in the last 12 months, emphasised by the volume of shares trade at 4.10 in the auction.
So I decided to start a charting both of the gold price and EVN's chart. Also included charts of NST , GOR and QAU (Beta shares gold bullion currency hedged to the Aussie dollar (QAU.ax).
Bear with me folks because there is a lot to see. The first one is difficult ( US gold price) for all the other charts its easy to see what I am talking about
Firstly lets look at the gold price in US dollars. What does it reveal?
These are the instructions you should follow to see what I want to reveal as I can't find out how to post this first chart. Sorry folks my instructions are tedious but the result is very much worth looking at. If anyone can find a way to post these results in a chart you will be my champion, so here goes.
Go to
https://goldprice.org/gold-silver-ratio.html and click on gold, This is a chart of the US gold price daily, Next click on time interval and click on weekly, next click on the the far right tab of indicators with a wavy line and the Plus symbol then scroll down to Moving averages and click this will add the 9 week moving average to your chart, next go to the second from the right symbol which is a cog wheel and then change the interval to 10 weeks.
There is more click, again on the wavy line and plus symbol and scroll down to linear regression and click to add it to the chart. Finally go again to the cog wheel and change the setting for upper deviation from 2 to 1.8 and the lower deviation from -2 to -1.8.
Then finally you will see what I see.
From the week 30th Apr 2018 the weekly hi-low prices fell into the channel of linear regression of +1.8 and _1.8. But two weeks early the week of 16 Apr 2018 the weekly hi-low candle trade entirely above the 10WMA. While the week 30 Apr was entirely below the 10WMA closing for that week at 1314 (bearish sign). So what happens next?
The US gold price continues to fall for 23 weeks from 1314 before the bullish sign appears, that is trading for the week 15 Oct 2018 with the Hi-lo candle entirely above the 10WMA closing at 1225. With the low for the period 1163. Bear run to bull from 1314 to 1225 after 23 weeks with a low of 1163. from 30 Apr 2018 to 15 Oct 2018
Next from the week 15 Oct 2018 (close at 1225 ) it took 21 weeks for the bull to turn into the bear on the 4 March 2019 closing at 1295 with the high peak for this period at 1346. Bull to bear 21 weeks from 1225 to 1298 with peak at 1346. From 15 Oct 2018 to 4 March 2019
Next was a shallow bear run from 4 Mar 2019 closing at 1298 for 14 weeks with a low of 1260 and turning into a bull run on the week of 3 Jun 2019 closing at 1340. Shallow Bear run 14 weeks from 1295 got to a low of 1260 and the bull run starts at 1340, 4 Mar 2019 to 3 Jun 2019 a bit of a positive sign.
What happens next?
Bull run starts on the week of 3 June at 1340 running for 20 weeks and it reaches a high of 1560 before the bull turns into a bear on the week of 7 Oct 2019 closing at 1490. Bull run of 20 weeks from 1340 peaking at 1560 ending at 1490. From 3 Jun 2109 to 7 Oct 2019.
Bear run 7 Oct 2019 closing at 1490 runs for 11 weeks , with a low of 1448 before turning into a bull run on the 30 Dec 2019 closing at 1552, Again shallow bear run 11 weeks from 1490 low of 1448 turning into a bull run at 1552. From 7 Oct 2019 to 30 Dec 2019.
Current situation Bull run starts on 30 Dec 2019 at 1552 and we are in the 7th week of this run.
Summary
1) Bear run to bull from 1314 to 1225 after 23 weeks with a low of 1163. from 30 Apr 2018 to 15 Oct 2018
2) Bull to bear 21 weeks from 1225 to 1298 with peak at 1346. From 15 Oct 2018 to 4 March 2019
3) Shallow Bear run 14 weeks from 1295 got to a low of 1260 and the bull run starts at 1340, 4 Mar 2019 to 3 Jun 2019, a bit of a positive sign.
4) Bull run of 20 weeks from 1340 peaking at 1560 ending at 1490. From 3 Jun 2109 to 7 Oct 2019.
5) Again shallow bear run 11 weeks from 1490 low of 1448 turning into a bull run at 1552. From 7 Oct 2019 to 30 Dec 2019.
6) Bull run starts on 30 Dec 2019 at 1552 and we are in the 7th week of this run. Current price 1572.
So we a long bear run to start this sequence 23W, bullish for 21w , bearish 14w, bullish 20w ,bearish 11w and currently on bullish for the 7th week. Bearish periods are shortening while the bullish sequences seem to run for around 20 weeks. So lets see what the US gold price is around mid May.\
Next look at the channels formed by the chart of linear regression at 1.8 to -1.8.
From the very first bearish sign on the 30 Apr 2018 on the 10WMA the SP dropped from the blue zone upper 1.8 into the red zone -1.8 and lingered there until July 2019 . It has stayed there mostly in the blue zone with only a period of 5 weeks where in touched into the red zone, but back into the blue zone for 8 weeks so far.
I am going to have to cut this short tonight, it late. We have been out with former neighbors to a Japaneses restaurant and more than a few wines.
I will continue to add to this post over the coming days. I ain't finished yet. Got to go into the EVN , NST , GOR and QAU charts yet. But first to sleep.
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My next contribution
OK back to the linear regression chart, can you notice the channel that has formed and that for the last 7 weeks the US gold price has been entirely in the blue channel, including this week.
Next try something different what I want to reveal to you. Go through all the previous instructions in opening the US gold chart. Next charge the timing to monthly.
A huge monthly downward linear of US GP timing channel is presented dropping into the downward channel in Jan 2013. Please notice how it dropped directly into the red zone very similar to our weekly pattern. Then to recover into the blue zone.
But here is the standout. look at the last two months.Went through the above the blue downward channel like it was water.
Very Bullish sign to me couple with my weekly charts and its channels.
The last bull run according to my previous post run for 20-21W . If we run for another 13 weeks we get to the upper blue channel line is at US 1671. Current GP US 1576
But thats the upper part of the blue channel. Who knows?
I am keeping this short but the next thing I noticed after the huge closing auction yesterday. I am also talking about the LM manipulation and the after effects it has had.
If an institution/hedge fund was holding 1,000,000 shares of NST two days ago, closing price was 13.76, They declared a dividend of 0.075 fully franked. Expecting a dividend of 75,000 and the franking credits on top of that
If some smart trader for this institution/hedge fund decided to switch their 1,000,000 million shares at 13.76 to into EVN purchasing roughly at 4.13 the same day ending up with 3,330,000., shares.
These 3.33 M shares pay a dividend of 0.07 cents and you get a dividend of 233,000 plus the 3 times the fully franking credits.
So for 1M at 13.76 NST Div (0.075) = 75,000 plus franking credits
Equals 3.33M at 4.13 EVN Div (0.07) =233.000 plus three times the franking credits of NST.
Go figure folks.
More to come, but I am playing golf tomorrow and the brain freezes after that.
Golf a tragic walk, then very rarely sprinkled by the occasional miracle.
More to come.
All my own opinion DYOR.
Good luck folks
cheers Lies
(20min delay)
