i definitely agree that you need to view the miners as a business first and not a lottery ticket on the gold price. youre in the wrong stock if the only way you make a profit is the price you take (and have zero control over) increases.
but i also wouldn't be in a sector where i dont expect that price to increase. Across my major holdings in gold, (evn, rrl, nst, gor) and ignoring my smaller positions, none have materially increased production over the last year (some have actually decreased) yet their stock price/ earnings have increased respectably, and i think the bulk of any future gains is going to come from appreciation of the gold price more than oz, although some will inevitably come from that.
going to say 2/3 from gold price and 1/3 from growth. To harp on a point you often make/point out with evn and 'margin over ounces'. I fully agree with this and think thats where gains will come from, increased margins in the sector via gold price increases.
perhaps adjacent, but recently taken a position in bgl and feel that if they had not been so stubbornly focused on production growth, putting their balance sheet in a precarious position if anything went wrong (inevitable during ramp up mostly) leads them to their current situation.
waffling a bit now sorry, but yes if you are solely in high quality assets which usually means healthy margins, any future return is more tilted towards growth than further margin expansion (via gold price). this math changes as you move further up the cost curve/down in asset quality.
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