I've just been comparing this EVO research report against the...

I've just been comparing this EVO research report against the quarterly numbers to see how the forecast numbers / assumptions stack up to reality. A few things jumped out at me.

1. There appears to be an error in the EVO report. Forecast sales from Ubuntu is 421,000t per quarter. Actual was 147,000t (TER equity share). Previous quarter was 161,000t so there was never any chance of achieving 421k?? The 421kt have been forecast out to the end of the mine life...
2. Forecast revenue for Sept quarter in the EVO report was $324m. Actual (TER equity share) was $302m. Not bad. However...
3. EVO report forecasts 198m EBITDA for Sept quarter. Actual EBITDA was ~$150 million.
4. The way the updated QLD royalty has been applied to the numbers looks all wrong (refer below). It looks as if these ($43m for Sept) have been left out of the EBITDA numbers. What am I missing here?


If the EVO report has missed the new royalties out of the EBITDA calc then things start to make more sense. However, this means the forecast earnings/dividend distributions throughout the EVO report are significantly overstated. Can anyone confirm?

The investment case might still stack up but I certainly wouldn't be expecting a 51c dividend this year based on their numbers!