LYC lynas rare earths limited

Yes EV car sales have risen. I believe they will rise every year...

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    Yes EV car sales have risen. I believe they will rise every year for many years till no pure ice vehicles are selling at all. I do not know about others but
    i never expected EVs to stop rising. What has happened is the forecast of high compounded growth rates are going away. This high forecast said EVS would be over 50% of sales by 2030. These forecast allowed companies like Tesla to sell for PE's of 200 + . it made it safe for countries to say no more ice in 10 ~30 years. Lower growth rates will have people forcing countries to change future policies. People will realize that profits will not grow the way they hoped at these manufactures. Lets take two companies Tesla and Lynas and look at them

    Tesla had a high PE of way over 200 on expected growth. Now Profits are still growing but much slower.. Its PE is 71. Now what does that mean. It means it will only grow 1.4 % next year because of earnings. In US bank accounts are paying over 4 % Why should any body buy a stock when they can buy and insured bank account paying almost 3 X more. Current increases in COP and slow growth will make this worse. Note i did not say no groth. Just that it will slow. Most likly faster than other companies but not fast enough to cover its current stock price over $200,

    Now lets look at Lynas its current PE is 18 which would be very good if it was a company with growing profits at an above average rate. Unfortunately that is a TMM PE. Which means it is based on last 12 months so it uses Profits from 2023 AR. Which were AU$ 310 M, H1 was 150M and H2 was 160M, Now when SAR comes out it might show a profit of 0~10M. so 150M is shifted off the TMM PE and replaced by 10 M. Next Monday we will know for sure. This will push the PE up to 30+ unless SP goes down. Now this is realy high but if profits were going through the roof it might even support it. Unfortunatly 160 M will be shifted off of the TMM when AR comes out and A much lower number will replace it. Unfortunately all Lynas vitals have been declining since Q3 of 2022. Because there is still a little euphoria left for Lynas it may be able to support a higher PE I think we will find with the drops in Q2 and SAR it is unlikely to be 15 which means the SP has to fall. It will not drop right away but watch a few weeks as people understand the news.

    https://hotcopper.com.au/data/attachments/5886/5886824-c4287a55741d72c9bfeea97f28765d1a.jpg



 
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Last
$9.18
Change
0.050(0.55%)
Mkt cap ! $8.587B
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$9.14 $9.23 $9.02 $21.24M 2.323M

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No. Vol. Price($)
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Price($) Vol. No.
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