You sold some shares a few days ago which means you are worried....

You sold some shares a few days ago which means you are worried. As Far as in the RED it is not hard to confirm all you need to do is multiply Volume times Price. double check by looking at past Qs. Q4 2023 was 1864 T of NdPrO. Q1 2024 1526 T was back to name plate well below NEXT rates. This was a Q with no problems like many others. So now to guess at Q2. My guess is 800 tons since plant will be shut down for 6 weeks. AL was not clear in exactly what she meant by shutdown. It can take a couple of weeks to shutdown or start up was this time included? I do not know. Here is a chart using data from Q reports so it is easy for you to verify. JMO Q3 NdPrO will be in the 800T +or- 100 tons Produced. They will sell from inventory but inventory is already on the balance sheet. I will contribute to Revenue and profit but not nearly as much as new product.

Next is price for Q4 the price of NdPr was 664 RMB WV / KG (this is the sum of all the Fridays closes divided by 13), Q1 476 RMB and Q2 so far 4098 RMB / 8 =512RMB Just for reference Q3 2022 was Lynas's best Q ever the prices 90 days before that were 929 RMB. So price and volume will both be down about 50% Not hard for me to figure out that Revenue will be down 60 ~ 75 % Q3 2022 revenue was AU$327M times .30 = about 100 M. Now when REE prices were going up everyone on this board said changes in revenue went right to bottom line. I do agree with that but not entirely. Things like solvent cost and energy go down with lower production. I assume that some of the labor force will be used for updates this means their costs go to CAP X not expense. When I do the math, I see no way profits will not be in the red.


" I just hope he's wrong about being no profits next year." Its up to you. You can hope or do some simple math and form your own opinion.

Sorry about no charts they were going to be the same ones I posted before, many times. Something is wrong with hot copper It keeps failing the paste. I tried several other programs and different charts they all failed/ Past into Word and it works fine. Tried pasting into word then using word file to past to hot copper it failed as well. I keep posting these charts over and over because people just do not seem to understand the impact of what is happening. Price down and Volume down, is never good news.


I am not encouraging you to Sell, Hold or Buy. That is up to you to decide. Just encouraging you to dig a little deeper then do what you think is best.