I think on a balance of probabilities this share is...

I think on a balance of probabilities this share is significantly more likely to go up than down.

You look at TA - we're in a strong upwards trend with a nice base supporting at ~15c (just need to get through the potential head and shoulders, which it looks like we're doing), with the best sustained volume we've had in years.

Then looking at FA - we've got a huge sales team that will come into their delivery zone (6-9 month lead in time) over the next few months. With profitability signaled to be within the next financial year (as soon as 3 months, as late as 15 months). The liklihood of another large scale (or something with long term delivery potential) sale coming through is high. Smart cities potential is huge. They're looking to grow ARR 100% year on year... what's not to love.

Personally I think this will track easily to ~24.5c, some stalling and bouncing around to get to ~28.5c then once its through that the lids off and its speculative to 39c-45c. Irrationality and hype will kick in at 28.5c and the short termers / traders will drive the price action - if you're trading this you could do very well, even for us holders it's still helping lock in a higher base.

I think this scenario will play out over the next 9-18 months. With large wins or potentials bumping us from one trading range to the next. If the timing of the move to profitability aligns with us being around 28c then the jump from there will be massive.