example of pure technical analysis ...

Hmmm ... discussion here last week regarding the SHORT entry but qualified in that have the firm belief that NAB will weather the current storm and accordingly will overide the technical analysis suggesting the negative reversal.

The 10/03/04 study is nevertheless interesting and we took a SHORT position as a quicky due to the generous I/Vols on offer ... and so far nicely green.

As chart shows the breakout of the long term downtrend has well and truly ended and have penciled in a makeshift upward reversal which works if you close one eye ...

NAB has stalled after a long run-up as expected at the Fib(61.8%) at $32.18 and to re-test at Fib(50%) at $31.48 next week.

RSI has also been triggered as overbought ...

Chart looks like this ...


BC projects a SHORT scenario 10/03/04 and looks like this...

SCENARIO: SHORT STOCK: NAB 10/03/04 > 23/03/04 = +/-
code c/p expiry strike i/vol 31.920 > 30.643 = -4.00%
NABZK P 25/03/04 30.50 15.13% 0.0249 > 0.0740 = 196.64%
NAB22 P 25/03/04 31.00 13.18% 0.0499 > 0.3667 = 635.09%
NAB23 P 25/03/04 31.50 10.85% 0.1003 > 0.8482 = 745.41%
NAB26 P 25/03/04 32.00 10.18% 0.2700 > 1.3480 = 399.28%
NAB73 P 25/03/04 32.50 8.43% 0.5652 > 1.8479 = 226.95%

NABVC P 29/04/04 30.50 12.73% 0.0983 > 0.3585 = 264.72%
NABMC P 29/04/04 31.00 11.59% 0.1502 > 0.5596 = 272.66%
NABMH P 29/04/04 31.50 10.84% 0.2505 > 0.8632 = 244.62%
NABRJ P 29/04/04 32.00 11.20% 0.4604 > 1.2756 = 177.09%
NABRK P 29/04/04 32.50 9.69% 0.6602 > 1.7085 = 158.78%
NABRL P 29/04/04 33.00 10.75% 1.0501 > 2.1988 = 109.38%

THE ABOVE PROJECTIONS ARE THEORETICAL AND DO NOT REPRESENT ADVICE OR RECOMMENDATION TO TRADE OR OTHERWISE.

Cheers ... tight stops.


This is only my view ... read the red stuff.