I don't think this is sinking in ... maybe I'm just misunderstanding what you are saying... let me try again.
This is not an attack on EXT's potentially huge size, nor on its resources, nor on they final takeover price....
Any takeover, no matter how generous, will be priced in US$. If the AUD continues to rise to $1.10, as considered likely by some financial reports, a rise of 20% from now, then the AUD price will DECREASE by 20%.
So your "gut feeling" that a takeover would be in the region of A$20 has to be RECALIBRATED to take this into account. A$20 will now become A$16 at a higher exchange rate, because the takeover is priced in US$. No takeover is going to include a "bonus" for you personally just because the exchange rate went against you. You'll be paid in US$, and when you convert this back to A$ you'll have 20% less than you expected.
Share prices exposed to the AUD, not just EXT but many others, will change downwards as investors take into account the effect of a rising AUD and a Reserve Bank that has publicly said will NOT stop the rise. We are not immune.
So if there is no news and no action and the AUD keeps rising... expect EXT share price to trend downwards as it accounts for the USD:AUD change.
EXT Price at posting:
$9.94 Sentiment: Hold Disclosure: Held
A personalised tool to help users track selected stocks. Delivering real-time notifications on price updates, announcements, and performance stats on each to help make informed investment decisions.
(20min delay)