292.5 Mlb is the official JORC & NI indicated + inferred...

292.5 Mlb is the official JORC & NI indicated + inferred resource released 22 Jul 09, only 2-3 months ago, not that long really. Anyway, it has no bearing on the change of share price with exchange rate, which my table shows. I start at A$10 and $0.90 for the exchange rate, it's nothing to do with the resource size.

It's possible the price paid for U lbs in the ground might rise, historically it's been valued at around US$6 per lb. EXT is now well past that level. As you say, there has been more drilling so the resource must be bigger, but we already have factored in a rise of 20% from US$6 per lb to US$7.50 per lb.

At some point, you have to realise that if the exchange rate increases by 10%, the share price value in A$ must decrease by 10% as well, all other factors remaining the same. If we do more drilling, or the U price rises, all this will do is to mitigate the loss to an extent. The exchange rate movement will still reduce the profit we otherwise might have seen, by the same amount as the exchange rate rise.

Look at it this way: let's say EXT today is valued at A$2.5 billion (roughly A$10 per share). At an exchange rate of 0.90, that's about US$2.25 billion. Let's say EXT doubled it's resource size, at the same time as the currency appreciated by 20% to $1.10. The value in US$ would also double to US$4.5 billion, but the A$ value would be about A$4.1 billion. Instead of doubling our share price from $10 to $20, we will increase to only about $16. That's the effect of a rising dollar, you can't get away with ignoring it.

At some point we will see the share price being affected by the rising A$