They are no closer to knowing whether it's a duster than the day they decided that it might be a nice place to start looking for oil. Wait until at least a day after they've intersected the primary target before you even start to think about what they do and don't know. Anything more is uneducated and worthless assemblages of pixels on a screen. Oil drilling would be a lot more successful and inexpensive if all you had to do was drill a few hundred metres in the ground to determine whether the target 2000m away had anything in it. I'll never understand why people think this way this early in a drill. The only possible thing they could know that would cause a fall in sp at the drill site at the moment is some kind of malfunction which obviously isn't the case.
Spec oilers drop all the time after spud. There is even an invesment strategy called "Buy Early Sell Before Spud" which is when you buy a stock no one cares about because drilling activity is months down the track at 10c (because the target oil will be worth $1 if they find it). You then wait for the drilling schedule to be announced or drilling to arrive and all the people that don't actively go out and search for companies, as well as short term traders start coming on board as the drill is advertised in various forms which pushes the price up in anticipation. After the unloved shares rise to 15c or whatever you sell them for an immediate real profit because a) 90%+ of all drills are dusters and b) Any kind of technical malfunction can happen after spud that can erode profits. So what happens when a bunch of people lock in profit at around spud time? Thats right.. it goes down. Also often within a drill they will encounter different kinds of hydrocarbon indications in irrelevant layers which will generally have a positive effect on the sp... however people will still sell because they're locking in profits knocking the wind out of rises. It's just what the sp does... goes up and down.. amazing huh? ;)
Nothing to do with whats actually at target.
That said the flipside is also true, it's just as ignorant when saying the results will indicate oil and there is oil there etc. A test of my skin will result in oil too, doesn't mean I'm an oil millionaire. It's a wild cat drill. There most probably isn't a commercially viable oil structure present just as there isn't in the overwhelming majority of drills. There is a reason it's called oil exploration and not oil alreadyfoundtion.
Every body chill out and let the drilling take its course. Both you and the company itself will know soon enough for the first time what they have.
CTP Price at posting:
0.0¢ Sentiment: ST Buy Disclosure: Held
