I have completed a significant amount of research on EXE and have taken a reasonable position at around 22.5 cents.
IMHO it does not get any better than this.
Based on ~2tcf as per the recent 3C cert, and weighted for risk, upside based on my calculations (disclaimer...MY calculations, please DYOR) capital upside is almost 4.5 times at this point based on EXE retaining ownership of around 13.5% of the tenements (currently 50%). This is based on the current 3C and nothing else.
Almost no dilution with all outstanding options and performance shares exercised. Amazing cash flow due to CNOOC deal, even without the options being exercised.
Synergies with CNOOC cannot be underestimated. Board is highly experienced which will be fundamental to success.
1-3 year time frame for investment, but short-termers may get a chance at significant gains, though the ride will be choppy.
WLD and Chinese govts will approve the JV for reasons already mentioned on this forum.
Major threats will be non-commercial find, general market weakness, and possible LNG glut. Market awareness will turn with a strike, but happy with things quiet for the moment. Total upside is epic.
As I said, this is all imho and based on my research.
Best of luck everyone.
EXE Price at posting:
22.0¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
