Mark, given both companies are in, or hoping to be in, the same very small business sector, and one is far more advanced than the other, to the point one of its major objectives is now locking down all the major premium ROW customers, how would you factor the risk/reward scenario at this point?
Given Shenghe is pitching monopoly customer, the other is now choosing customers?
Chances are the Dragon will bleed this dry, 23% TREO con vs Mt Pass ~60% TREO will always contain value to peanuts, to the point they delist +90%, probably somewhere around or below current values given dilution to fund the basic operation.
The other positioned to meet ROW demand growth, particularly as the Dragon moves to reduce exports to 44ktpa as per stated 2020 objective.
One a wing and a prayer, the other forecast LT ~40% EBITA by one of the major global finance houses.
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