Here's one of Rupert's papers viewpoint on the possible outcome!
"On polling day in August 2010, I had an equivalent article published in Inquirer which predicted 75 of the 76 senators correctly. My only error was that I failed to predict the election of John Madigan (DLP, Victoria).
As 36 of the 76 senators were determined at the half-election in August 2010, this makes the task even easier for the whole Senate.
My upper table shows the present numbers (from July 1, 2011) and these continue until June 30 next year. However, there is a minor caveat. Territory senators do not rotate. They have three-year terms tied to the House of Representatives. Consequently, in the (very unlikely) event that Simon Sheikh of the Greens were to take the ACT seat occupied by Gary Humphries (Liberal), then Sheikh would take his seat immediately and there would be 10 Greens in the Senate until June 30, 2014.
In August 2010, the Greens were very successful. They had a senator elected in every state. By contrast, in November 2007 Greens were elected only in Western Australia, South Australia and Tasmania. That is why my upper table shows only one in each big state but two in each small state.
Today's election replaces (from July 1, 2014) the six senators from each state elected in November 2007. It also replaces from today the two senators from each territory elected in August 2010.
I now go through the states. In NSW, in 2007 the result was three Labor, three Coalition. I predict today it will be three Coalition, two Labor and one for the Greens. Net result: one seat shifts from Labor to the Greens. The new Greens senator will be Cate Faehrmann.
In Victoria, the same will happen. Having won three seats in 2007, Labor will win only two today - so one seat will shift from Labor to the Greens. The new Greens senator will be Janet Rice.
In Queensland the result in 2007 was (as in NSW and Victoria) three Labor, three Coalition. Today the result will be three Liberal National Party, two Labor and James Blundell from Katter's Australian Party. So Labor goes down one and KAP makes its entrance into the Senate.
My tables show Western Australia as the only state with no change from July 1, 2014. That is because today's result will be the same as it always is, three Liberal, two Labor and one for the Greens - the incumbent, Scott Ludlam.
South Australia will see the defeat of Greens senator Sarah Hanson-Young and her replacement by the third Liberal candidate, Cathie Webb.
In Tasmania, Greens senator Peter Whish-Wilson (successor to Bob Brown) will be elected but Labor will lose its third senator (Lin Thorp) to the Liberal candidate, Sally Chandler.
The consequence of all this will be that the combined Labor-Greens figure of 40 at present will drop to 37 on July 1, 2014 (27 Labor, 10 Greens)."
