Expanding NATO Wars, page-58

The Russians are advancing quickly toward Pokrovsk and gaining substantial ground around Toretsk and Niu York, so the Zelensky gamble does not seem to be paying off. Then there is the daily bleed of losses, with the Ukrainians seemingly bled out of armoured vehicles and a dwindling supply of artillery. Becoming an infantry army with very limited "technicals" and no real artillery or air support (what little air support there is is getting shot down in the Kursk area).

Once through Pokrovsk, the Russians are out of the foothills and onto a plain full of small villages and towns with little of the industrial buildings and deep fortifications that they have been fighting through so far. Not good for a dwindling Ukrainian infantry army made up of predominantly the press-ganged and coerced, with a few experienced soldiers who have been fighting for two and a half years plus with little leave.

Ukrainian losses for August 13th, as reported by the Russian defence ministry:

- Sever Group (Kharkov): 65 troops, 5 motor vehicles, 2 artillery pieces,

- Zapad Group (Luhansk area): 470 troops, 1 APC, 4 motor vehicles, 6 artillery piece

- Yug Group (Donetsk north): 510 troops, 1 HMV, 8 artillery pieces

- Tsetr Group (Donetsk south): 635 troops, 1 tank, 1 IFV, 2 motor vehicles, 4 artillery pieces

- Vostok Group (southern front): 100 troops, 3 motor vehicles, 5 artillery pieces, 1 counter battery radar system

- Dnepr Group: 55 troops, 4 motor vehicles, 1 artillery pieces

In total: 1,835 troops (about 2,000-2,500 with undercounting: 60,000 to 75,000 a month). We seem to have hit a new normal of 2,000 to 2,500 reported losses.

1 tank, 2 AFV/IFV/APC, 1 HMV, 18 motor vehicles; continuing transformation of the Ukrainian army into infantry plus “technicals” (pickup trucks with mounted weapons). They even seem to be running out of simple pickup trucks. Are vehicles being hoarded for the Kursk push?

26 artillery pieces, a lower level but still at a rate of over 750 per month. Only 1 Counter Battery Radar system. Perhaps Ukraine is starting to run severely short of artillery, and counter battery radar and EW systems.

In addition the Russians are adept at shooting down ATACMS and HIMARS missiles, as well as hunting down and destroying HIMARS systems. They are also destroying a lot of weapons dumps.

Posted by: Roger | Aug 13 2024 22:17 utc