What do you mean by both outcomes? The original footprint vs the expanded project?
The expanded project has been the plan for several years now and construction has proceeded on that basis within the original approved area. This has to some extent mitigated delays in getting the expanded area approved. With that approval now in hand however, they're able to get on with construction outside the original footprint - mainly up around the crystallisers which we've seen is already underway.
Without checking all the maturities, the majority of debt is required to be paid back in under 10 years (I think NAIF is 7 years). This will be supported by EBITDA projections of circa $350m. I haven't gone back to check the exact numbers but you can see with those projections there shouldn't be an issue paying the majority of debt back quite quickly, however it depends on what mix of debt repayment, SOP and shareholder returns they go with of course.
Drawdown will occur in 2025, so NAIF is due by 2032... or five years after sales in 2027. So it'll come down pretty quick, I'd assume they'll also restructure some of that debt at some point to settle at gearing of 20% or so which is fairly common.
Just off the top of my head, I haven't checked the exact details - I'm expecting substantially debt payments by 2030.
R42
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