Been holding DYE for a few months and sold today to lock in...

Been holding DYE for a few months and sold today to lock in profits. I like this sector and I respect what this company is trying to do, however I think the required stability/longevity is still many years away. Indeed, I think the probability that they will ever achieve the required stability/longevity is only around 50%.

In the interim, this company is burning $1mill per month, yet only has around $5mill in cash. This is effectively a 4 month runway. The CEO won't wait until the last minute, so I'm expecting a raising sooner rather than later.

Even on the company's own highly optimistic timeline to revenue generation (remembering that they have been wrong about revenue/commericalisation timelines for 10 years now), they are going to need around two years worth of cash or around an additional $25mill. They can't do all of this in one hit, but one way or another, shareholders can expect at least $25mill in dilution over the next two years (additional dilution will come from 'performance rights' and other management incentives).

Including performance rights/options the company presently has a market cap of around $128mill, yet only has $5mill in the bank. Long term, this company might achieve its 'holly grail', or it might not; but over the short to medium term, I think the downside risk from capital raisings and additional delays in technology development outweighs any upside potential.