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29/10/15
15:35
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Originally posted by Ousia
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Been holding DYE for a few months and sold today to lock in profits. I like this sector and I respect what this company is trying to do, however I think the required stability/longevity is still many years away. Indeed, I think the probability that they will ever achieve the required stability/longevity is only around 50%.
In the interim, this company is burning $1mill per month, yet only has around $5mill in cash. This is effectively a 4 month runway. The CEO won't wait until the last minute, so I'm expecting a raising sooner rather than later.
Even on the company's own highly optimistic timeline to revenue generation (remembering that they have been wrong about revenue/commericalisation timelines for 10 years now), they are going to need around two years worth of cash or around an additional $25mill. They can't do all of this in one hit, but one way or another, shareholders can expect at least $25mill in dilution over the next two years (additional dilution will come from 'performance rights' and other management incentives).
Including performance rights/options the company presently has a market cap of around $128mill, yet only has $5mill in the bank. Long term, this company might achieve its 'holly grail', or it might not; but over the short to medium term, I think the downside risk from capital raisings and additional delays in technology development outweighs any upside potential.
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Er...do we take it that you only "think" from your thought centre? The likely scenario is you are enlightening us re your vague guess re the chances of success of DYE and the stability issue re Perovskites. In my opinion they are a 90% chance of solving the issue and will do it before the end of the FY. Vast levels of cosmic energy are being directed at DYE from sources beyond your imagination. Grasshopper.