expectation, page-15

Hi Dgrove,

Mate, just taking Gindara by itself, the 450mmstb is estimated OIP, or OOIP, or OIIP, it is certainly not the 3P reserve.

Oil that may be extracted from a reservoir (recoverable reserves), usually runs at 15 to 30% of OIP (somtimes less, or more), and then is broken down into the three P categories...

Proved/P90 = "we're darn sure that amount of oil is there."

Probable/P50 = "we're pretty sure that’s what’s there."

Possible/P10 = "this much might be there, if we're real lucky and absolutely everything goes right."

1P Reserve = Proved/P90

2P Reserve = Proved/P90 + Probable/P50

3P Reserve = Proved/P90 + Probable/P50 + Possible/P10

The 90, 50 and 10 represent the % chance of recovery for the amount in that category.

Original Oil In Place (OOIP) = the oil in the rocks.

Recoverable Reserves = the oil that we think we can get out.

Note that 100 million barrels of possible oil in place can very suddenly turn into 10 million barrels of probable recoverable oil!

Be very, very wary of anyone who quotes possible Oil In Place in a press release.

By way of example, the Galoc field has an estimated recovery factor of 21%.
Galoc has a 124mtr oil column with estimated OOIP of 198.1mmstb.
A 3P reserve of 41.9mmstb (P10), a 2P reserve of 23.5mmstb (P50), and a 1P reserve of 9.7mmstb (P90).

The Galoc figures quoted here are from GCA in Dec 2006, but are supposedly still relevant today. This is where I'm hoping like hell the hinted at 2P reserve increase by GCA alluded to by Samy is accurate...what a bottler if it is!!

And like anything else in the oilfield, this can all change tomorrow at the drop of a hat!

If I've stuffed up the interpretation here (because there are usually many), lets hear it!