Expectations for June Quarter

With dividend announced, keen to get thoughts on how we are likely tracking for June.

Keeping it really simple and conservative:

Jun-23 Quarter

• Modest recovery to 460kt sale for BA (should do better)
• Avg sale price of A$210/t incurring avg royalty costs of $25/t
• Diesel/elect & op costs of A$95/t (slightly better than last quarter due to volumes)
• EBITDA of A$90/t
• Total Australia EBITDA of A$41.4M
• Small contribution from South Africa bringing to total A$45M ($180M annualised)

Beyond June

• Get back to minimum 500kt per quarter (should do better)
• Avg sale price of A$170/t incurring avg royalty costs of $16/t (I see this as likely worst case)
• Diesel/elect & op costs of $95/t (can definitely do better here also)
• EBITDA of A$59/t
• Total Australia EBITDA of l $29.5M ($118M annualised)
• Probably no meaningful contribution from South Africa

Current market cap A$410M. Negligible debt.

Still seems a bargain, unless you think coal price are going back to $US75/t, in which case the annual EBITDA would only be around A$25M at which point the wheels are falling off. Probably looking at $US85/t revenue being the cut-off point at which the business is not really sustainable long term.

A bit too much effort to estimate net cash but would be keen if anyone has worked it through?

I also note that "restricted cash" was $51M in Dec-22, and the last quarterly states it is grew to $67M which seems strange to me. Possibly they are aiming to reach the Qld Enviro bond level of $72M, even though it doesn't require this full amount in cash backing? Either way they have hopefully secured a much better interest rate on this also.

Anyway this was a long post but keen to test my back of envelope thinking. Hope everyone doesn't mind me starting a new thread but I think its timely and warrants separate discussion.

Not advice and no warranty on accuracy of anything in this post