With dividend announced, keen to get thoughts on how we are likely tracking for June.
Keeping it really simple and conservative:
Jun-23 Quarter
- Modest recovery to 460kt sale for BA (should do better)
- Avg sale price of A$210/t incurring avg royalty costs of $25/t
- Diesel/elect & op costs of A$95/t (slightly better than last quarter due to volumes)
- EBITDA of A$90/t
- Total Australia EBITDA of A$41.4M
- Small contribution from South Africa bringing to total A$45M ($180M annualised)
Beyond June
- Get back to minimum 500kt per quarter (should do better)
- Avg sale price of A$170/t incurring avg royalty costs of $16/t (I see this as likely worst case)
- Diesel/elect & op costs of $95/t (can definitely do better here also)
- EBITDA of A$59/t
- Total Australia EBITDA of l $29.5M ($118M annualised)
- Probably no meaningful contribution from South Africa
Current market cap A$410M. Negligible debt.
Still seems a bargain, unless you think coal price are going back to $US75/t, in which case the annual EBITDA would only be around A$25M at which point the wheels are falling off. Probably looking at $US85/t revenue being the cut-off point at which the business is not really sustainable long term.
A bit too much effort to estimate net cash but would be keen if anyone has worked it through?
I also note that "restricted cash" was $51M in Dec-22, and the last quarterly states it is grew to $67M which seems strange to me. Possibly they are aiming to reach the Qld Enviro bond level of $72M, even though it doesn't require this full amount in cash backing? Either way they have hopefully secured a much better interest rate on this also.
Anyway this was a long post but keen to test my back of envelope thinking. Hope everyone doesn't mind me starting a new thread but I think its timely and warrants separate discussion.
Not advice and no warranty on accuracy of anything in this post
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