I haven’t been posting lately because it’s just been the usual...

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Glpg

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31/01/24

00:48

Post #: 72145783
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Originally posted by Glpg: ↑

Ok have had a chance to reconcile predictions vs actuals... and summarised below.

I've included in both threads so that this one gets a nice close-out, but people mainly interested in the announcement thread can also see.

Key points from my perspective:
Really poor form that they didn't update the market, instead leaving the impression from last update things were going really well
Super dodgy to blame increased costs on lower production, when total costs were $6m higher!!
From a cash perspective, looks to me like things are not terrible
Looking forward, I'm more cautious and am going with an early prediction of $33M EBITDA for Dec quarter
I think coal prices will return to US$160/t for Newcastle within the next two weeks, and we will average out slightly better for Dec-23 Qtr than Sep-23 Qtr

One addtional thing I would say is that this quarters horrid operational performance underlines all my prior comments that I do not want TER investing cash in new operations.... they have no special operational expertise just lucky to be riding the coal wave. Sell SA, and run BA down with maximum priority to cash realisation please, right down to selling the front gate for scrap in 2031 on the way out.

Please let me know if you see any errors.

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I haven’t been posting lately because it’s just been the usual suspects talking charty stuff

looking back at my predictions for December, the main things that have changed are I would estimate an average sales prices of A$163/t and they will probably do slightly better than the conservative 435kt production

all I’m I’m going to guess $27.5M EBITDA for the quarter

i suspect their may be a further improvement in a couple of other cash related items also

i would say there will almost certainly be a dividend payment, probably 2c possibly 1.5c

i don’t see thermal coal prices going and more than a few percent lower than they are right now, and that we will see another run up within the next 12 months

this still makes TER a great long term buy at 35c in my personal opinion (not advice)

I am however only holding a large chunk in my super now though and not really speculating on weekly moves… more focused on day trading the crazy dips in uranium and gold stocks
Last edited by Glpg: 31/01/24

TER Price at posting: 35.5¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
6 Upvote

1 Great analysis

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