Lots of great discussion in the prior thread regarding June Quarter, so I thought might be good to do it all over again for September.
All just my estimates and not advice. Please comment on anything you believe is incorrect
Using same simple high level estimates and structure as last time:
Jun-23 Quarter Actuals- 466kt sale for BA
- Avg sale price of A$198/t incurring avg royalty costs of $19/t (I calculate $21.20/t based on Qld values so probably some timing variance?)
- Diesel/elect costs of A$10.30/t
- Other operating costs of A$74.30/t
- EBITDA of A$94/t
- Total Australia
- EBITDA of A$43.8M
- Better contribution from South Africa than I had expected at 49% of $11M = $5.4M EBITDA
- Total EBITDA $49.2M ($197M annualised)
- Closing cash at bank $51M (excluding restricted cash of $67M
- $24M dividends distributed to shareholders (3c dividend) paid in June
- Borrowing negligible at $6-7M
- $64.4M tax still to be paid
Sep-23 Quarter Estimates- 480kt sale for BA (I'm not aware of any major production or weather issues - should be a good one)
- Avg sale price of A$177/t incurring avg royalty costs of $17.4/t (July prices were actually pretty low)
- Diesel/elect costs of A$11.50/t (likely a tiny bit up)
- Other operating costs of A$72.00/t (I expect a decent operation will have tightened a few things)
- EBITDA of A$86/t
- Total Australia EBITDA of A$41.3M
- Be a little conservative with South Africa at say 49% of $8 = $4M EBITDA
- Total EBITDA $45.3M ($181M annualised)
- Paid out $24M in dividends once again
- Reduction by Qld Dept Enviro and Science of BA rehab assurance from $66.9M to $58.2M.
- Not sure what sort of cash outflows from tax - probably well over $20M?
- Likely still pretty close $50m cash at bank excluding restricted cash
Current market cap A$350M. Pretty amazing bargain still!
Making decent money and financially stable until thermal hits around $US85/t, noting we seem pretty stable above US$150/t and in my opinion are likely to trend back up over $180/t over next two months
Once again the "restricted cash" numbers still confuse me, but I assume we are fully covered and actually freed up $9M cash due to the reduction by Qld Dept Enviro and Science from $66.9M to $58.2M. I note they are getting 4.1% interest from Westpac on this amount at least
(20min delay)