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Expected Revenue, page-170

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FrankieAlfie

2,644 Posts.

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28/01/24

12:19

Post #: 72095529
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Originally posted by the trickster: ↑

I want to start a new thread where we can as a group try to work out estimated revenues. I have spoken to IR and suggested that NUH give some guidance or at least a walk through.
I want this to be a working thread rather than a trolling thread, if you want to troll go jump.
As I have stated in prior posts NUH biggest obstacle and handbrake has been a lack of POS. Over the yrs they have flipflopped between bricks and mortar and online, but it has been adhoc and interupted by covid restrictions etc.
This is the first time they will have serious POS numbers in a recognised category with a product that differentiates. I understand they are the only ones with a QUH code.
Earlier this year they rolled out to 300 Best Buys stores, invoices $1mln . 300 stores is a reasonable number to gain averages for to be able to drawn some reasonable assumptions.
According to the 4c they booked $852K for a total of $1.618mln on a cash basis.
Their online sales appear to conistently track around $350-400K
Assuming a mid point of $375K that would suggest a booking of cash revenue of around $477k
The 4E wihich is on an accural basis shows a total reveune of $1.931mln suggesting an booking of an additional ($1.931-$1.618) = $313k, booked but not paid yet.
That would suggest that based on roughly 300 POS for about 3 months that $790k vs invoices of $1mln plus. Obviously there are sales via other stores eg Crutchfield etc but those are mostly online. without a breakdown the numbers are going to be rough but ballpark. There may be a variance there of other factors. It is a reason basis to start.
Revenue per unit is $699AUD as per prior presentation
Run rate appears to be ((($790000/699)/300)/3)= 1.256 unit per month per Best Buy POS with a rough total units sold of 1130.
This is a reasonable guesstimate of what the run rate will be per Walmart POS, additional Best Buys POS's etc
Perhaps we round down that 1.256 to something closer to 1?
Revenue per unit is now $500 AUD based on a $499 USD sale assuming a 30-35% retail margin
We can see how adding additional POS explodes the revenue significantly higher.
I havent considered Advertising spend and it effect on sales. But I think Best Buy example of 300 stores provides a good base case where to set expectations.
5000 POS will really send revenue up significantly which ever way one looks at it.
Thoughts?

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I'm really interested in your thoughts on the quarterly due for release this week.
The September quarterly was a dismal 212 000. I can't imagine it being this bad. Based on reviews, I'm going somewhere up to $ 900,000. However, I've always been too optimistic in the past. They received their 1.4 million RD rebate, keeping the lights on. The issue will be, as we have said all along, they need to sell these products to keep the lights on until an OEM can be agreed upon. We have gone from 10 down to 0. We were meant to have the launch of Gen 4 at CES24. And as you pointed out, the problem has been POS. Justin backed this up, saying that we now have POS, and we only need execution. It might be time to execute his position and put someone new in.

NUH Price at posting: 11.5¢ Sentiment: Hold Disclosure: Held
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